印度

2026-02-02 A long-awaited trade truce between America and India

After months of trade friction, America has agreed to slash tariffs on India. In return, India will halt its purchases of Russian oil, President Donald Trump announced on February 2nd. America’s “reciprocal” tariff on Indian goods will fall from 25% to 18%, said Mr Trump. An additional 25% levy, imposed in August as punishment for India’s purchases of Russian oil, will be lifted altogether, according to American officials.

India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, confirmed the reduction in tariffs, though he was mum on Mr Trump’s claim that India had committed to buy more American goods, including $500bn worth of energy and agricultural products. Nor did Mr Modi address India’s purchases of Russian oil, which Mr Trump says are helping to fund Russia’s war in Ukraine.

A trade deal with America would be a boon for the Indian economy. It has largely weathered the impact of Mr Trump’s tariffs. Outside a few regions specialising in gems or textiles, India is not geared towards manufacturing exports. Goods such as smartphones and generic pharmaceuticals were exempt. But the levies crushed any hope that India might benefit from companies seeking to diversify their supply chains away from China. HSBC, a bank, estimated that the combined 50% tariffs would shave 0.7 percentage points off annual Indian growth.

Only lately have relations improved. A new American ambassador in New Delhi, Sergio Gor, has been credited with taking the edge off since his arrival in January. Mr Trump may also fear being left behind: his announcement came less than a week after India and the European Union unveiled their own trade deal.

The details of the US-India deal remain unclear, including India’s stance on Russian oil. Signs point towards it buying less. Fewer Russian tankers have been arriving in Indian ports, and India’s oil minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, hinted last week that the country might tilt more towards purchases from Venezuela. A tougher nut to crack may be Mr Trump’s claim that India will reduce its tariff and non-tariff barriers on American goods to zero. That is unlikely. Agriculture has long been a sticking point: India restricts GM crops, and feeding practices in America’s dairy industry include animal by-products.

The rupee was among the worst-performing major currencies against the dollar last year, partly because foreign investors reduced their exposure to the country. Following Mr Trump’s announcement on February 2nd, the rupee ticked up and the GIFT Nifty—an index of Indian large-cap futures—rallied.